TPACTechnology Policy and Assessment Center
 
 

Technology Evolution

Table of Contents

This section traces the evolution of fuel cell research and development, with particular emphasis on the question: "How has fuel cell R&D evolved?"

Fig 7: Fuel Cell Evolution
An analysis of keyword occurrences reveals some interesting patterns in the evolution of fuel cell technology.

Observations on Fuel Cell Technology:

  • PAFCs and MCFCs were the most common fuel cell technologies in publications from 1986-1988.
  • NASA's strong interest in AFC's for spacecraft can be seen during this period. Publication on AFC's peaked during 1989-1991 and then fell sharply after 1992.  AFC's were not found within the top 100 keywords in 1995-1997, reflecting a declining popularity.
  • MCFC's led publications from 1989-1991 but did not see an increasing pattern during the next two periods.
  • The evolution matrix clearly displays the growth of SOFC's, rising from a 30th ranking (1986-1988) to 2nd (1989-1991) and finally to a leading position from 1992 to 1997.

Observations on Specific Materials:

  • From 1986-1988, research emphasis on PAFC's explains interest in Platinum and alloys, required as a catalyst for the electrodes.
  • Methanol is a prominent material of interest as a fuel.
  • The rise of Ceramic materials and Zirconia as leading materials arises from SOFC's, which use a coated zirconia ceramic as the electrolyte.
  • Interest in metal compounds such as Lanthanum has increased.

Observations on Specific Processes:

  • Interest in Membranes and Thermodynamics as specific process areas rose between 1989-1994 and then fell out of the top concerns.
  • Interest in Ionic Conduction has remained an ongoing concern.
  • Oxidation has become a prominent issue, probably due to interest in solid oxides.

Observations on Applications:

  • Space applications declined after 1991.
  • Electric power generation rose to become a primary application across fuel cells.
  • Performance, Mathematical models, and Computer simulation reflect the interest in enhancing fuel technological feasibility.
  • The emergence of Marketing and Energy Efficiency in applications reveals the interest in commercial viability.

The classification codes in ENGI were analyzed to trace the evolution of fuel cell research. This analysis is based on the assumption that article indexing is an adequate indicator of particular research domains. Secondary analysis was conducted on ENGI's domain-level hierarchy to assess activity in each research domain.

Fig. 8: Evolution of Fuel Cell Research: 1986-1997

Fig.9 Evolution of Fuel Cell Research: 1986-1997 (Part 2)


Observations include:

  • Interest in Metallurgical Engineering, Metal Groups ranked third in the period from 1986-1988, its highest relative ranking. The next period saw a sharp decline in total articles (91 to 40) or a 57% decrease.
  • Interest in fuel cell applications increased during the second period (1989-1991), particularly growth in Naval Architecture and Marine Engineering (1 to 13 articles) and Ocean and Underwater Technology (4 to 12 articles).
  • Aerospace Engineering represented the most significant application domain from 1986 to 1991. From 1992 to 1997, however, research in this domain declined by over 50% and was surpassed by automotive and environmental concerns.
  • Several application domains experienced significant growth during the second half of the evolutionary timeline. The period from 1992-1994 saw the rise of Automotive Engineering as the most significant application domain rising from 9 articles (1986-1988) to 13 articles (1989-1991) to 48 articles (1992-1994), an increase of over 260%.
  • The domain with the greatest growth is Pollution, Sanitary Engineering with an eleven-fold increase in 1992-1994 over the previous period; followed by Engineering, General with a six-fold increase over the same timeframe.
  • Evidence of the trend towards product and process improvements can be seen by the increases in Control Engineering (100%), Instruments and Measurement (117%), and Engineering Mathematics (218%).