The Future of Technology Forecasting
Vary Coates, Inst. for Technology Assessment, Washington, DC
Mahmud Faroque, George Mason Univ., Fairfax, VA
Richard Klavans, CRP, Philadelphia, PA
Koty Lapid, Softblock, Beer Sheva, Israel
Harold Linstone, Portland State Univ., Portland, OR
Carl Pistorius, Univ. of Pretoria, South Africa
Alan L. Porter, Georgia Tech, Atlanta, GA
Executive Summary: Technology forecasting is now poised to respond to the emerging needs of private and public sector organizations in the highly competitive global environment. The history of technology forecasting and its variant forms, including impact assessment, national foresight studies, roadmapping, and competitive technological intelligence, shows how it has responded to changing institutional motivations. Renewed focus on innovation, attention to science-based opportunities, and broad social and political factors will bring renewed attention to technology forecasting in industry, government, and academia. Promising new tools are being devised, often borrowing from related fields such as political science, computer science, scientometrics, innovation management., and complexity science.
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